Prediction Markets in HolyC
This guide covers the implementation of decentralized prediction markets on Solana using HolyC. Prediction markets enable users to trade on the outcome of future events, creating mechanisms for information aggregation and price discovery.
Overview
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares representing different outcomes of future events. Market prices reflect the collective probability assessment of outcomes, making them powerful tools for forecasting and decision-making.
Key Concepts
Binary Markets: Markets with two possible outcomes (Yes/No, Win/Lose).
Categorical Markets: Markets with multiple mutually exclusive outcomes.
Market Resolution: Process of determining the correct outcome and distributing winnings.
Oracle Integration: External data sources that provide outcome verification.
Automated Market Making: Liquidity provision through algorithmic pricing.
Prediction Market Architecture
Core Components
- Market Creation: Deploy new prediction markets for events
- Trading Engine: Buy and sell outcome shares
- Liquidity Management: Provide and withdraw market liquidity
- Oracle System: External data integration for resolution
- Settlement: Distribute winnings based on outcomes
Data Structures
// Prediction market configuration
struct PredictionMarket {
U8[32] market_id; // Unique market identifier
U8[32] creator; // Market creator address
U8[32] oracle; // Oracle responsible for resolution
U64 event_timestamp; // When event occurs
U64 resolution_timestamp; // When market can be resolved
U64 expiry_timestamp; // Market trading deadline
U8 market_type; // 0 = Binary, 1 = Categorical
U8 outcome_count; // Number of possible outcomes
U64 total_liquidity; // Total market liquidity
U64 creator_fee; // Creator fee percentage (basis points)
U64 platform_fee; // Platform fee percentage (basis points)
U8 status; // 0 = Active, 1 = Resolved, 2 = Cancelled
U8 winning_outcome; // Resolved outcome (255 = unresolved)
Bool allow_early_resolution; // Can resolve before event timestamp
U8[256] description; // Market description
U8[64] outcomes[MAX_OUTCOMES]; // Outcome descriptions
};
// Individual outcome within a market
struct MarketOutcome {
U8[32] market; // Parent market address
U8 outcome_index; // Outcome index (0, 1, 2, etc.)
U64 share_supply; // Total shares in circulation
U64 share_price; // Current share price (0-100 for percentage)
U64 backing_liquidity; // Liquidity backing this outcome
U64 volume_24h; // 24-hour trading volume
U64 last_trade_price; // Last executed trade price
Bool is_resolved; // Whether outcome is resolved
};
// User position in a prediction market
struct UserPosition {
U8[32] market; // Market address
U8[32] owner; // Position owner
U64 shares_owned[MAX_OUTCOMES]; // Shares owned for each outcome
U64 average_cost[MAX_OUTCOMES]; // Average cost basis for each outcome
U64 total_invested; // Total amount invested
U64 unrealized_pnl; // Unrealized profit/loss
U64 last_update_time; // Last position update
};
// Liquidity provider position
struct LiquidityPosition {
U8[32] market; // Market address
U8[32] provider; // Liquidity provider
U64 liquidity_tokens; // LP tokens held
U64 initial_value; // Initial liquidity value
U64 fees_earned; // Accumulated fees
U64 last_fee_collection; // Last fee collection time
};
Implementation Guide
Market Creation
Deploy new prediction markets for events:
U0 create_prediction_market(
U8* oracle,
U64 event_timestamp,
U64 resolution_timestamp,
U8 market_type,
U8 outcome_count,
U8* description,
U8 outcomes[][64],
U64 initial_liquidity
) {
if (outcome_count < 2 || outcome_count > MAX_OUTCOMES) {
PrintF("ERROR: Invalid outcome count (2-%d allowed)\n", MAX_OUTCOMES);
return;
}
if (event_timestamp <= get_current_timestamp()) {
PrintF("ERROR: Event must be in the future\n");
return;
}
if (resolution_timestamp < event_timestamp) {
PrintF("ERROR: Resolution time must be after event time\n");
return;
}
// Generate market PDA
U8[32] market_address;
U8 bump_seed;
find_program_address(&market_address, &bump_seed, oracle, &event_timestamp);
// Initialize market
PredictionMarket* market = get_account_data(market_address);
copy_pubkey(market->market_id, market_address);
copy_pubkey(market->creator, get_current_user());
copy_pubkey(market->oracle, oracle);
market->event_timestamp = event_timestamp;
market->resolution_timestamp = resolution_timestamp;
market->expiry_timestamp = event_timestamp - 3600; // 1 hour before event
market->market_type = market_type;
market->outcome_count = outcome_count;
market->total_liquidity = 0;
market->creator_fee = 100; // 1% creator fee
market->platform_fee = 50; // 0.5% platform fee
market->status = 0; // Active
market->winning_outcome = 255; // Unresolved
market->allow_early_resolution = False;
// Copy description and outcomes
copy_string(market->description, description, 256);
for (U64 i = 0; i < outcome_count; i++) {
copy_string(market->outcomes[i], outcomes[i], 64);
}
// Initialize outcome accounts
for (U64 i = 0; i < outcome_count; i++) {
MarketOutcome* outcome = get_outcome_account(market_address, i);
copy_pubkey(outcome->market, market_address);
outcome->outcome_index = i;
outcome->share_supply = 0;
outcome->share_price = 10000 / outcome_count; // Equal initial probability
outcome->backing_liquidity = 0;
outcome->volume_24h = 0;
outcome->last_trade_price = outcome->share_price;
outcome->is_resolved = False;
}
// Add initial liquidity if provided
if (initial_liquidity > 0) {
add_initial_liquidity(market_address, initial_liquidity);
}
PrintF("Prediction market created successfully\n");
PrintF("Market ID: %s\n", encode_base58(market_address));
PrintF("Event time: %d\n", event_timestamp);
PrintF("Outcomes: %d\n", outcome_count);
for (U64 i = 0; i < outcome_count; i++) {
PrintF(" %d: %s\n", i, outcomes[i]);
}
}
Trading Mechanism
Implement automated market making for outcome shares:
U0 buy_outcome_shares(U8* market_address, U8 outcome_index, U64 amount, U64 max_cost) {
PredictionMarket* market = get_account_data(market_address);
if (!market || market->status != 0) {
PrintF("ERROR: Market not available for trading\n");
return;
}
if (get_current_timestamp() > market->expiry_timestamp) {
PrintF("ERROR: Market trading has expired\n");
return;
}
if (outcome_index >= market->outcome_count) {
PrintF("ERROR: Invalid outcome index\n");
return;
}
MarketOutcome* outcome = get_outcome_account(market_address, outcome_index);
// Calculate cost using constant product formula
U64 cost = calculate_purchase_cost(market_address, outcome_index, amount);
if (cost > max_cost) {
PrintF("ERROR: Cost exceeds maximum: %d > %d\n", cost, max_cost);
return;
}
if (cost == 0) {
PrintF("ERROR: Invalid purchase calculation\n");
return;
}
// Validate user has sufficient balance
if (!validate_user_balance(USDC_MINT, cost)) {
PrintF("ERROR: Insufficient balance for purchase\n");
return;
}
// Transfer payment to market
transfer_tokens_to_market(USDC_MINT, cost);
// Calculate fees
U64 creator_fee_amount = (cost * market->creator_fee) / 10000;
U64 platform_fee_amount = (cost * market->platform_fee) / 10000;
U64 liquidity_amount = cost - creator_fee_amount - platform_fee_amount;
// Update outcome state
outcome->share_supply += amount;
outcome->backing_liquidity += liquidity_amount;
outcome->volume_24h += cost;
outcome->last_trade_price = calculate_share_price(market_address, outcome_index);
// Update user position
update_user_position(market_address, outcome_index, amount, cost);
// Update market liquidity
market->total_liquidity += liquidity_amount;
// Distribute fees
distribute_creator_fee(market->creator, creator_fee_amount);
distribute_platform_fee(platform_fee_amount);
// Update share prices for all outcomes
update_all_share_prices(market_address);
PrintF("Outcome shares purchased successfully\n");
PrintF("Outcome: %d (%s)\n", outcome_index, market->outcomes[outcome_index]);
PrintF("Shares: %d, Cost: %d\n", amount, cost);
PrintF("New price: %d.%d\n", outcome->last_trade_price / 100, outcome->last_trade_price % 100);
}
U0 sell_outcome_shares(U8* market_address, U8 outcome_index, U64 amount, U64 min_payout) {
PredictionMarket* market = get_account_data(market_address);
if (!market || market->status != 0) {
PrintF("ERROR: Market not available for trading\n");
return;
}
if (outcome_index >= market->outcome_count) {
PrintF("ERROR: Invalid outcome index\n");
return;
}
// Verify user owns sufficient shares
UserPosition* position = get_user_position(market_address, get_current_user());
if (!position || position->shares_owned[outcome_index] < amount) {
PrintF("ERROR: Insufficient shares to sell\n");
return;
}
MarketOutcome* outcome = get_outcome_account(market_address, outcome_index);
// Calculate payout using constant product formula
U64 payout = calculate_sale_payout(market_address, outcome_index, amount);
if (payout < min_payout) {
PrintF("ERROR: Payout below minimum: %d < %d\n", payout, min_payout);
return;
}
// Calculate fees
U64 creator_fee_amount = (payout * market->creator_fee) / 10000;
U64 platform_fee_amount = (payout * market->platform_fee) / 10000;
U64 net_payout = payout - creator_fee_amount - platform_fee_amount;
// Update outcome state
outcome->share_supply -= amount;
outcome->backing_liquidity -= payout;
outcome->volume_24h += payout;
outcome->last_trade_price = calculate_share_price(market_address, outcome_index);
// Update user position
position->shares_owned[outcome_index] -= amount;
// Update market liquidity
market->total_liquidity -= payout;
// Transfer payout to user
transfer_tokens_from_market(USDC_MINT, net_payout);
// Distribute fees
distribute_creator_fee(market->creator, creator_fee_amount);
distribute_platform_fee(platform_fee_amount);
// Update share prices for all outcomes
update_all_share_prices(market_address);
PrintF("Outcome shares sold successfully\n");
PrintF("Outcome: %d (%s)\n", outcome_index, market->outcomes[outcome_index]);
PrintF("Shares sold: %d, Payout: %d\n", amount, net_payout);
PrintF("New price: %d.%d\n", outcome->last_trade_price / 100, outcome->last_trade_price % 100);
}
Pricing Algorithm
Implement logarithmic market scoring rule (LMSR):
U64 calculate_purchase_cost(U8* market_address, U8 outcome_index, U64 shares) {
PredictionMarket* market = get_account_data(market_address);
// Get current share supplies for all outcomes
U64 current_supplies[MAX_OUTCOMES];
U64 new_supplies[MAX_OUTCOMES];
for (U64 i = 0; i < market->outcome_count; i++) {
MarketOutcome* outcome = get_outcome_account(market_address, i);
current_supplies[i] = outcome->share_supply;
new_supplies[i] = outcome->share_supply;
}
new_supplies[outcome_index] += shares;
// LMSR cost calculation: C(new) - C(current)
// C(q) = b * log(sum(exp(q_i / b))) where b is liquidity parameter
U64 liquidity_param = market->total_liquidity / 1000; // Adjust based on liquidity
if (liquidity_param == 0) liquidity_param = 1000; // Minimum liquidity parameter
U64 current_cost = lmsr_cost(current_supplies, market->outcome_count, liquidity_param);
U64 new_cost = lmsr_cost(new_supplies, market->outcome_count, liquidity_param);
return new_cost > current_cost ? new_cost - current_cost : 0;
}
U64 calculate_sale_payout(U8* market_address, U8 outcome_index, U64 shares) {
PredictionMarket* market = get_account_data(market_address);
// Get current share supplies for all outcomes
U64 current_supplies[MAX_OUTCOMES];
U64 new_supplies[MAX_OUTCOMES];
for (U64 i = 0; i < market->outcome_count; i++) {
MarketOutcome* outcome = get_outcome_account(market_address, i);
current_supplies[i] = outcome->share_supply;
new_supplies[i] = outcome->share_supply;
}
new_supplies[outcome_index] -= shares;
// LMSR payout calculation: C(current) - C(new)
U64 liquidity_param = market->total_liquidity / 1000;
if (liquidity_param == 0) liquidity_param = 1000;
U64 current_cost = lmsr_cost(current_supplies, market->outcome_count, liquidity_param);
U64 new_cost = lmsr_cost(new_supplies, market->outcome_count, liquidity_param);
return current_cost > new_cost ? current_cost - new_cost : 0;
}
U64 lmsr_cost(U64* quantities, U8 outcome_count, U64 b_param) {
// Simplified LMSR implementation
// C(q) = b * log(sum(exp(q_i / b)))
// Using fixed-point arithmetic approximation
U64 max_q = 0;
for (U64 i = 0; i < outcome_count; i++) {
if (quantities[i] > max_q) max_q = quantities[i];
}
// Prevent overflow by normalizing around max value
U64 sum_exp = 0;
for (U64 i = 0; i < outcome_count; i++) {
U64 normalized_q = quantities[i] >= max_q ? 0 : max_q - quantities[i];
sum_exp += exp_approx(normalized_q * 1000 / b_param); // Scale for precision
}
// Return approximated cost
return max_q + (b_param * log_approx(sum_exp)) / 1000;
}
U64 calculate_share_price(U8* market_address, U8 outcome_index) {
PredictionMarket* market = get_account_data(market_address);
// Calculate implied probability based on current share supplies
U64 total_shares = 0;
U64 outcome_shares = 0;
for (U64 i = 0; i < market->outcome_count; i++) {
MarketOutcome* outcome = get_outcome_account(market_address, i);
total_shares += outcome->share_supply;
if (i == outcome_index) {
outcome_shares = outcome->share_supply;
}
}
if (total_shares == 0) {
return 10000 / market->outcome_count; // Equal probability
}
// Price as percentage (0-10000 representing 0-100%)
return (outcome_shares * 10000) / total_shares;
}
Market Resolution
Resolve markets based on oracle data:
U0 resolve_market(U8* market_address, U8 winning_outcome) {
PredictionMarket* market = get_account_data(market_address);
if (!market || market->status != 0) {
PrintF("ERROR: Market cannot be resolved\n");
return;
}
// Verify caller is authorized oracle
if (!compare_pubkeys(get_current_user(), market->oracle)) {
PrintF("ERROR: Only oracle can resolve market\n");
return;
}
// Check timing constraints
U64 current_time = get_current_timestamp();
if (!market->allow_early_resolution && current_time < market->resolution_timestamp) {
PrintF("ERROR: Too early to resolve market\n");
return;
}
if (winning_outcome >= market->outcome_count) {
PrintF("ERROR: Invalid winning outcome\n");
return;
}
// Resolve market
market->status = 1; // Resolved
market->winning_outcome = winning_outcome;
// Mark winning outcome as resolved
MarketOutcome* winning = get_outcome_account(market_address, winning_outcome);
winning->is_resolved = True;
// Calculate total payout pool
U64 total_pool = market->total_liquidity;
// Distribute winnings to holders of winning outcome
if (winning->share_supply > 0) {
U64 payout_per_share = total_pool / winning->share_supply;
// Update outcome with final payout rate
winning->last_trade_price = 10000; // Winning outcome = 100%
PrintF("Market resolved successfully\n");
PrintF("Winning outcome: %d (%s)\n", winning_outcome, market->outcomes[winning_outcome]);
PrintF("Total payout pool: %d\n", total_pool);
PrintF("Payout per winning share: %d\n", payout_per_share);
}
// Mark all other outcomes as losers
for (U64 i = 0; i < market->outcome_count; i++) {
if (i != winning_outcome) {
MarketOutcome* outcome = get_outcome_account(market_address, i);
outcome->is_resolved = True;
outcome->last_trade_price = 0; // Losing outcome = 0%
}
}
// Enable claim period for winners
enable_winning_claims(market_address);
}
U0 claim_winnings(U8* market_address) {
PredictionMarket* market = get_account_data(market_address);
if (market->status != 1) {
PrintF("ERROR: Market not resolved yet\n");
return;
}
UserPosition* position = get_user_position(market_address, get_current_user());
if (!position) {
PrintF("ERROR: No position found\n");
return;
}
U8 winning_outcome = market->winning_outcome;
U64 winning_shares = position->shares_owned[winning_outcome];
if (winning_shares == 0) {
PrintF("No winning shares to claim\n");
return;
}
// Calculate payout
MarketOutcome* winning = get_outcome_account(market_address, winning_outcome);
U64 total_pool = market->total_liquidity;
U64 payout = (winning_shares * total_pool) / winning->share_supply;
// Transfer winnings
transfer_tokens_from_market(USDC_MINT, payout);
// Clear user position
position->shares_owned[winning_outcome] = 0;
PrintF("Winnings claimed successfully\n");
PrintF("Winning shares: %d\n", winning_shares);
PrintF("Payout: %d\n", payout);
}
Liquidity Provision
Enable users to provide liquidity for market making:
U0 add_liquidity(U8* market_address, U64 amount) {
PredictionMarket* market = get_account_data(market_address);
if (!market || market->status != 0) {
PrintF("ERROR: Cannot add liquidity to inactive market\n");
return;
}
if (amount == 0) {
PrintF("ERROR: Liquidity amount must be positive\n");
return;
}
// Validate user balance
if (!validate_user_balance(USDC_MINT, amount)) {
PrintF("ERROR: Insufficient balance\n");
return;
}
// Calculate LP tokens to mint
U64 lp_tokens_to_mint;
U64 total_lp_supply = get_total_lp_supply(market_address);
if (total_lp_supply == 0) {
// First liquidity provision
lp_tokens_to_mint = amount;
} else {
// Proportional to existing liquidity
lp_tokens_to_mint = (amount * total_lp_supply) / market->total_liquidity;
}
// Transfer liquidity to market
transfer_tokens_to_market(USDC_MINT, amount);
// Update market state
market->total_liquidity += amount;
// Mint LP tokens
mint_lp_tokens(market_address, lp_tokens_to_mint);
// Update user LP position
update_lp_position(market_address, lp_tokens_to_mint, amount);
PrintF("Liquidity added successfully\n");
PrintF("Amount: %d, LP tokens: %d\n", amount, lp_tokens_to_mint);
}
U0 remove_liquidity(U8* market_address, U64 lp_tokens) {
PredictionMarket* market = get_account_data(market_address);
if (!market) {
PrintF("ERROR: Market not found\n");
return;
}
// Cannot remove liquidity from resolved markets until claims are processed
if (market->status == 1) {
PrintF("ERROR: Cannot remove liquidity from resolved market\n");
return;
}
LiquidityPosition* lp_position = get_lp_position(market_address, get_current_user());
if (!lp_position || lp_position->liquidity_tokens < lp_tokens) {
PrintF("ERROR: Insufficient LP tokens\n");
return;
}
U64 total_lp_supply = get_total_lp_supply(market_address);
// Calculate withdrawal amount proportional to LP token share
U64 withdrawal_amount = (lp_tokens * market->total_liquidity) / total_lp_supply;
// Collect accumulated fees
U64 fees_owed = calculate_lp_fees(market_address, lp_position);
U64 total_withdrawal = withdrawal_amount + fees_owed;
// Update market state
market->total_liquidity -= withdrawal_amount;
// Burn LP tokens
burn_lp_tokens(market_address, lp_tokens);
// Update LP position
lp_position->liquidity_tokens -= lp_tokens;
lp_position->fees_earned += fees_owed;
lp_position->last_fee_collection = get_current_timestamp();
// Transfer withdrawal to user
transfer_tokens_from_market(USDC_MINT, total_withdrawal);
PrintF("Liquidity removed successfully\n");
PrintF("LP tokens burned: %d\n", lp_tokens);
PrintF("Amount withdrawn: %d (including %d fees)\n", total_withdrawal, fees_owed);
}
Advanced Features
Conditional Markets
Create markets that depend on other market outcomes:
struct ConditionalMarket {
U8[32] base_market; // Primary market this depends on
U8 required_outcome; // Required outcome for activation
U8[32] conditional_market; // Secondary market address
Bool is_activated; // Whether condition has been met
};
U0 create_conditional_market(
U8* base_market_address,
U8 required_outcome,
U8* conditional_event_description,
U8 conditional_outcomes[][64],
U8 conditional_outcome_count
) {
PredictionMarket* base_market = get_account_data(base_market_address);
if (!base_market || base_market->status != 0) {
PrintF("ERROR: Invalid base market\n");
return;
}
if (required_outcome >= base_market->outcome_count) {
PrintF("ERROR: Invalid required outcome\n");
return;
}
// Create conditional market (initially inactive)
U8[32] conditional_address;
create_prediction_market_internal(
conditional_address,
base_market->oracle,
base_market->event_timestamp + 86400, // 1 day after base event
base_market->resolution_timestamp + 86400,
1, // Categorical
conditional_outcome_count,
conditional_event_description,
conditional_outcomes,
0 // No initial liquidity
);
// Create conditional relationship
ConditionalMarket* conditional = get_conditional_account(conditional_address);
copy_pubkey(conditional->base_market, base_market_address);
conditional->required_outcome = required_outcome;
copy_pubkey(conditional->conditional_market, conditional_address);
conditional->is_activated = False;
PrintF("Conditional market created\n");
PrintF("Base market: %s\n", encode_base58(base_market_address));
PrintF("Required outcome: %d\n", required_outcome);
PrintF("Conditional market: %s\n", encode_base58(conditional_address));
}
U0 activate_conditional_market(U8* conditional_address) {
ConditionalMarket* conditional = get_conditional_account(conditional_address);
PredictionMarket* base_market = get_account_data(conditional->base_market);
if (base_market->status != 1) {
PrintF("ERROR: Base market not resolved\n");
return;
}
if (base_market->winning_outcome != conditional->required_outcome) {
PrintF("Conditional market condition not met\n");
return;
}
// Activate conditional market
PredictionMarket* conditional_market = get_account_data(conditional->conditional_market);
conditional_market->status = 0; // Activate
conditional->is_activated = True;
PrintF("Conditional market activated\n");
}
Multi-Outcome Complex Events
Handle complex events with multiple related outcomes:
struct ComplexEvent {
U8[32] event_id; // Complex event identifier
U8 sub_market_count; // Number of related markets
U8[32] sub_markets[MAX_SUB_MARKETS]; // Related market addresses
U64 correlation_matrix[MAX_SUB_MARKETS][MAX_SUB_MARKETS]; // Outcome correlations
Bool requires_all_resolved; // Whether all sub-markets must resolve
};
U0 create_complex_event(
U8* sub_market_addresses[],
U8 market_count,
U64 correlations[][MAX_SUB_MARKETS],
Bool require_all
) {
if (market_count < 2 || market_count > MAX_SUB_MARKETS) {
PrintF("ERROR: Invalid sub-market count\n");
return;
}
// Generate complex event ID
U8[32] event_id;
generate_complex_event_id(event_id, sub_market_addresses, market_count);
ComplexEvent* complex_event = get_complex_event_account(event_id);
copy_pubkey(complex_event->event_id, event_id);
complex_event->sub_market_count = market_count;
complex_event->requires_all_resolved = require_all;
// Copy sub-markets and correlations
for (U64 i = 0; i < market_count; i++) {
copy_pubkey(complex_event->sub_markets[i], sub_market_addresses[i]);
for (U64 j = 0; j < market_count; j++) {
complex_event->correlation_matrix[i][j] = correlations[i][j];
}
}
PrintF("Complex event created with %d sub-markets\n", market_count);
}
Oracle Integration
Integrate with external data sources for market resolution:
struct OracleRequest {
U8[32] request_id; // Unique request identifier
U8[32] market; // Market requesting resolution
U8[32] oracle; // Oracle address
U64 request_timestamp; // When request was made
U64 response_deadline; // Deadline for oracle response
U8 status; // 0 = Pending, 1 = Fulfilled, 2 = Expired
U8 outcome; // Oracle-provided outcome
U64 confidence_score; // Oracle confidence (0-10000)
U8[256] evidence_url; // URL to supporting evidence
};
U0 request_oracle_resolution(U8* market_address) {
PredictionMarket* market = get_account_data(market_address);
if (!market || market->status != 0) {
PrintF("ERROR: Market cannot request resolution\n");
return;
}
if (get_current_timestamp() < market->resolution_timestamp) {
PrintF("ERROR: Too early for resolution request\n");
return;
}
// Create oracle request
U8[32] request_id;
generate_request_id(request_id, market_address, get_current_timestamp());
OracleRequest* request = get_oracle_request_account(request_id);
copy_pubkey(request->request_id, request_id);
copy_pubkey(request->market, market_address);
copy_pubkey(request->oracle, market->oracle);
request->request_timestamp = get_current_timestamp();
request->response_deadline = get_current_timestamp() + 86400; // 24 hours
request->status = 0; // Pending
request->outcome = 255; // Unresolved
request->confidence_score = 0;
PrintF("Oracle resolution requested\n");
PrintF("Request ID: %s\n", encode_base58(request_id));
PrintF("Oracle: %s\n", encode_base58(market->oracle));
}
U0 submit_oracle_response(U8* request_id, U8 outcome, U64 confidence, U8* evidence_url) {
OracleRequest* request = get_oracle_request_account(request_id);
if (!request || request->status != 0) {
PrintF("ERROR: Invalid or already fulfilled request\n");
return;
}
if (!compare_pubkeys(get_current_user(), request->oracle)) {
PrintF("ERROR: Only designated oracle can respond\n");
return;
}
if (get_current_timestamp() > request->response_deadline) {
PrintF("ERROR: Response deadline exceeded\n");
request->status = 2; // Expired
return;
}
// Validate response
PredictionMarket* market = get_account_data(request->market);
if (outcome >= market->outcome_count) {
PrintF("ERROR: Invalid outcome\n");
return;
}
if (confidence < 5000) { // Minimum 50% confidence
PrintF("WARNING: Low confidence response\n");
}
// Submit response
request->outcome = outcome;
request->confidence_score = confidence;
request->status = 1; // Fulfilled
copy_string(request->evidence_url, evidence_url, 256);
// Automatically resolve market if confidence is high enough
if (confidence >= 8000) { // 80%+ confidence
resolve_market(request->market, outcome);
} else {
PrintF("Manual review required due to low confidence\n");
}
PrintF("Oracle response submitted\n");
PrintF("Outcome: %d, Confidence: %d.%d%%\n", outcome, confidence / 100, confidence % 100);
}
This comprehensive prediction market implementation provides sophisticated forecasting mechanisms with proper oracle integration, complex event handling, and automated market making for effective price discovery.